Management
481
Forecasting
Homework

Email your completed homework to Prof
Pagano (.edu”>[email protected]) on an Excel spreadsheet
by Friday, Oct 23. This is a requirement of the class. If you do not submit your homework, you will be
given an incomplete grade in the course until it is submitted. Homework problem
session on Tues, Oct 27. Midterm on Oct
29.

Given the following information:

Year/Quarter Sales
1 1 121
2 144
3 117
4 112
2 1 165
2 192
3 153
4 144
3 1 209
2 240
3 189
4 176

Assume that there is a trend and a seasonal
factor at work in the series so that the underlying model is O=TSI. Use the moving average approach to forecast
sales for each quarter of year 4.

Given the following information:

SALES
Day Four Weeks Three Weeks Two
Weeks Last Week
Ago Ago Ago

M $2,200 $2,400 $2,300 $2,400
T 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,200
W 2,300 2,400 2,300 2,500
TH 1,800 1,900 1,800 2,000
F 1,900 1,800 2,100 2,000
S 2,800 2,700 3,000 2,900

Assume that there is a trend and a day of
the week factor at work in the series.
Use the moving average approach to forecast sales for each day of this
week.

Given the following data:

Year Sales Forecasted
Sales
2014 $1,000 $1,200
2015
1,100 1,300

Choose a value
for alpha and use the exponential smoothing model to forecast sales for 2016.

Given the data in question 3, assume:

K=0
K=.5
K=1
K=1.5

Use the proportional change model to forecast sale for 2016, 2017, 2018,
2019, and 2020 using each of the assumed values for K.

5. The Universal Appliance Store has
accumulated the following sales data and has asked you to isolate the trend:

1. Plot the sales data on a graph.

2. Use a 12 month centered moving average
to isolate the trend.
a.
Calculate a 12 month moving average
b.
Calculate a 2 month moving average of the 12 month moving average to center
the moving average.

3. Plot the 12 month centered moving
average on a graph.

4.
Use this information to forecast sales for the first half of 2016.

Management
481Forecasting
HomeworkEmail your completed homework to Prof
Pagano (.edu”>[email protected]) on an Excel spreadsheet
by Friday, Oct 23. This is a requirement of the class. If you do not submit your homework, you will be
given an incomplete grade in the course until it is submitted. Homework problem
session on Tues, Oct 27. Midterm on Oct
29.Year/Quarter Sales1 1 121 2 144 3 117 4 1122 1 165 2 192 3 153 4 1443 1 209 2 240 3 189 4 176Assume that there is a trend and a seasonal
factor at work in the series so that the underlying model is O=TSI. Use the moving average approach to forecast
sales for each quarter of year 4.SALESDay Four Weeks Three Weeks Two
Weeks Last Week Ago Ago AgoM $2,200 $2,400 $2,300 $2,400T 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,200W 2,300 2,400 2,300 2,500TH 1,800 1,900 1,800 2,000F 1,900 1,800 2,100 2,000S 2,800 2,700 3,000 2,900Assume that there is a trend and a day of
the week factor at work in the series.
Use the moving average approach to forecast sales for each day of this
week. Year Sales Forecasted Sales2014 $1,000 $1,2002015
1,100 1,300Choose a value
for alpha and use the exponential smoothing model to forecast sales for 2016.K=0K=.5K=1K=1.5
Use the proportional change model to forecast sale for 2016, 2017, 2018,
2019, and 2020 using each of the assumed values for K. 5. The Universal Appliance Store has
accumulated the following sales data and has asked you to isolate the trend:1. Plot the sales data on a graph.2. Use a 12 month centered moving average
to isolate the trend. a.
Calculate a 12 month moving average b.
Calculate a 2 month moving average of the 12 month moving average to center the moving average.3. Plot the 12 month centered moving
average on a graph.4.
Use this information to forecast sales for the first half of 2016.